Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study
Identifieur interne : 007D41 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 007D40; suivant : 007D42Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study
Auteurs : A. J. Pitman [Australie] ; N. De Noblet-Ducoudré [France] ; F. T. Cruz [Australie] ; E. L. Davin [France, Suisse] ; G. B. Bonan [États-Unis] ; V. Brovkin [Allemagne] ; M. Claussen [Allemagne] ; C. Delire [France] ; L. Ganzeveld [Pays-Bas] ; V. Gayler [Allemagne] ; B. J. J. M. Van Den Hurk [Pays-Bas] ; P. J. Lawrence [États-Unis] ; M. K. Van Der Molen [Pays-Bas] ; C. Müller [Allemagne, Pays-Bas] ; C. H. Reick [Allemagne] ; S. I. Seneviratne [Suisse] ; B. J. Strengers [Pays-Bas] ; A. Voldoire [France]Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters [ 0094-8276 ] ; 2009-07.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Albedo, Carte, Chaleur latente, Climat, Consistance, Echelon régional, Eté, Evapotranspiration, Flux chaleur, Hémisphère Nord, Incertitude, Modèle climat, Monde, Occupation sol, Paramétrisation, Phénologie, Précipitation atmosphérique, Refroidissement, Réchauffement, Température superficielle, Température surface, Transfert chaleur.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Pays-Bas.
- topic : Climat, Offre énergétique, Changement climatique, Sciences de la vie.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Albedo, Assessment agency, Atmospheric research, Available energy, Biogeophysical effects, Climate change, Climate impact research, Climate model, Climate models, Climate responses, Climate results, Climate science, Consistency, Crop phenology, Environmental sciences, Findell, First results, Global, Global biogeochem, Global climate, Global land, Greenhouse gases, Grid points, Heat flux, Ipsl, Latent heat flux, Life sciences, Lsms, Lucid, Lucid intercomparison study, Meteorological institute, Model variability, Multiple climate models, Multiple models, National center, Natural land, Netherlands, Northern Hemisphere, Past land, Phenology, Pitman, Planck institute, Potsdam institute, Regional climate, Regional scope, Research centre, Robust impacts, Root depth, Roughness length, Significant changes, Summer, Surface albedo, Surface temperature, University amsterdam, Vegetation, Wageningen university, albedo, atmospheric precipitation, climate, cooling, evapotranspiration, global, heat flux, heat transfer, land cover, latent heat, maps, parametrization, surface temperature, uncertainties, warming.
- Teeft :
- Albedo, Assessment agency, Atmospheric research, Available energy, Biogeophysical effects, Climate change, Climate impact research, Climate model, Climate models, Climate responses, Climate results, Climate science, Crop phenology, Environmental sciences, Findell, First results, Global, Global biogeochem, Global climate, Global land, Greenhouse gases, Grid points, Heat flux, Ipsl, Latent heat flux, Life sciences, Lsms, Lucid, Lucid intercomparison study, Meteorological institute, Model variability, Multiple climate models, Multiple models, National center, Natural land, Netherlands, Past land, Pitman, Planck institute, Potsdam institute, Regional climate, Research centre, Robust impacts, Root depth, Roughness length, Significant changes, Surface albedo, Surface temperature, University amsterdam, Vegetation, Wageningen university.
Abstract
Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human‐induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. Five models simulated statistically significant cooling in summer in near‐surface temperature over regions of LCC and one simulated warming. There were few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of LCC. The lack of consistency among the seven models was due to: 1) the implementation of LCC despite agreed maps of agricultural land, 2) the representation of crop phenology, 3) the parameterisation of albedo, and 4) the representation of evapotranspiration for different land cover types. This study highlights a dilemma: LCC is regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL039076
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Australie, France, Pays-Bas, Suisse, États-Unis
- Brandebourg, Hambourg, Hollande-Septentrionale, Midi-Pyrénées, Occitanie (région administrative)
- Amsterdam, Hambourg, Potsdam, Toulouse
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Le document en format XML
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J." last="Pitman">A. J. Pitman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Australie</country></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Australie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="De Noblet Ucoudre, N" sort="De Noblet Ucoudre, N" uniqKey="De Noblet Ucoudre N" first="N." last="De Noblet-Ducoudré">N. De Noblet-Ducoudré</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UVSQ, CEA, CNRS, Gif‐sur‐Yvette</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gif‐sur‐Yvette</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Gif‐sur‐Yvette</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cruz, F T" sort="Cruz, F T" uniqKey="Cruz F" first="F. T." last="Cruz">F. T. Cruz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New South Wales</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Davin, E L" sort="Davin, E L" uniqKey="Davin E" first="E. L." last="Davin">E. L. Davin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UVSQ, CEA, CNRS, Gif‐sur‐Yvette</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Gif‐sur‐Yvette</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Gif‐sur‐Yvette</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Zurich</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bonan, G B" sort="Bonan, G B" uniqKey="Bonan G" first="G. B." last="Bonan">G. B. Bonan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, Boulder</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Boulder</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brovkin, V" sort="Brovkin, V" uniqKey="Brovkin V" first="V." last="Brovkin">V. 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Delire</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Groupe d'étude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo‐France, CNRS, Toulouse</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Midi-Pyrénées</region><settlement type="city">Toulouse</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ganzeveld, L" sort="Ganzeveld, L" uniqKey="Ganzeveld L" first="L." last="Ganzeveld">L. Ganzeveld</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wageningen</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gayler, V" sort="Gayler, V" uniqKey="Gayler V" first="V." last="Gayler">V. Gayler</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Hambourg</settlement><region type="land" nuts="2">Hambourg</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Den Hurk, B J J M" sort="Van Den Hurk, B J J M" uniqKey="Van Den Hurk B" first="B. J. J. M." last="Van Den Hurk">B. J. J. M. Van Den Hurk</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Netherlands Royal Meteorological Institute, De Bilt</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>De Bilt</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lawrence, P J" sort="Lawrence, P J" uniqKey="Lawrence P" first="P. J." last="Lawrence">P. J. Lawrence</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, Boulder</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Boulder</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Der Molen, M K" sort="Van Der Molen, M K" uniqKey="Van Der Molen M" first="M. K." last="Van Der Molen">M. K. Van Der Molen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Netherlands Royal Meteorological Institute, De Bilt</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>De Bilt</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Amsterdam</settlement><region nuts="2" type="province">Hollande-Septentrionale</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Muller, C" sort="Muller, C" uniqKey="Muller C" first="C." last="Müller">C. Müller</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="2">Brandebourg</region><settlement type="city">Potsdam</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Reick, C H" sort="Reick, C H" uniqKey="Reick C" first="C. H." last="Reick">C. H. Reick</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Hambourg</settlement><region type="land" nuts="2">Hambourg</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Seneviratne, S I" sort="Seneviratne, S I" uniqKey="Seneviratne S" first="S. I." last="Seneviratne">S. I. Seneviratne</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Zurich</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Strengers, B J" sort="Strengers, B J" uniqKey="Strengers B" first="B. J." last="Strengers">B. J. Strengers</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Voldoire, A" sort="Voldoire, A" uniqKey="Voldoire A" first="A." last="Voldoire">A. Voldoire</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Groupe d'étude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo‐France, CNRS, Toulouse</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Midi-Pyrénées</region><settlement type="city">Toulouse</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="alt">GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS</title><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">36</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">14</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">6</biblScope><date type="published" when="2009-07">2009-07</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Albedo</term><term>Assessment agency</term><term>Atmospheric research</term><term>Available energy</term><term>Biogeophysical effects</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climate impact research</term><term>Climate model</term><term>Climate models</term><term>Climate responses</term><term>Climate results</term><term>Climate science</term><term>Consistency</term><term>Crop phenology</term><term>Environmental sciences</term><term>Findell</term><term>First results</term><term>Global</term><term>Global biogeochem</term><term>Global climate</term><term>Global land</term><term>Greenhouse gases</term><term>Grid points</term><term>Heat flux</term><term>Ipsl</term><term>Latent heat flux</term><term>Life sciences</term><term>Lsms</term><term>Lucid</term><term>Lucid intercomparison study</term><term>Meteorological institute</term><term>Model variability</term><term>Multiple climate models</term><term>Multiple models</term><term>National center</term><term>Natural land</term><term>Netherlands</term><term>Northern Hemisphere</term><term>Past land</term><term>Phenology</term><term>Pitman</term><term>Planck institute</term><term>Potsdam institute</term><term>Regional climate</term><term>Regional scope</term><term>Research centre</term><term>Robust impacts</term><term>Root depth</term><term>Roughness length</term><term>Significant changes</term><term>Summer</term><term>Surface albedo</term><term>Surface temperature</term><term>University amsterdam</term><term>Vegetation</term><term>Wageningen university</term><term>albedo</term><term>atmospheric precipitation</term><term>climate</term><term>cooling</term><term>evapotranspiration</term><term>global</term><term>heat flux</term><term>heat transfer</term><term>land cover</term><term>latent heat</term><term>maps</term><term>parametrization</term><term>surface temperature</term><term>uncertainties</term><term>warming</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Albedo</term><term>Carte</term><term>Chaleur latente</term><term>Climat</term><term>Consistance</term><term>Echelon régional</term><term>Eté</term><term>Evapotranspiration</term><term>Flux chaleur</term><term>Hémisphère Nord</term><term>Incertitude</term><term>Modèle climat</term><term>Monde</term><term>Occupation sol</term><term>Paramétrisation</term><term>Phénologie</term><term>Précipitation atmosphérique</term><term>Refroidissement</term><term>Réchauffement</term><term>Température superficielle</term><term>Température surface</term><term>Transfert chaleur</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Albedo</term><term>Assessment agency</term><term>Atmospheric research</term><term>Available energy</term><term>Biogeophysical effects</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climate impact research</term><term>Climate model</term><term>Climate models</term><term>Climate responses</term><term>Climate results</term><term>Climate science</term><term>Crop phenology</term><term>Environmental sciences</term><term>Findell</term><term>First results</term><term>Global</term><term>Global biogeochem</term><term>Global climate</term><term>Global land</term><term>Greenhouse gases</term><term>Grid points</term><term>Heat flux</term><term>Ipsl</term><term>Latent heat flux</term><term>Life sciences</term><term>Lsms</term><term>Lucid</term><term>Lucid intercomparison study</term><term>Meteorological institute</term><term>Model variability</term><term>Multiple climate models</term><term>Multiple models</term><term>National center</term><term>Natural land</term><term>Netherlands</term><term>Past land</term><term>Pitman</term><term>Planck institute</term><term>Potsdam institute</term><term>Regional climate</term><term>Research centre</term><term>Robust impacts</term><term>Root depth</term><term>Roughness length</term><term>Significant changes</term><term>Surface albedo</term><term>Surface temperature</term><term>University amsterdam</term><term>Vegetation</term><term>Wageningen university</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Pays-Bas</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Climat</term><term>Offre énergétique</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Sciences de la vie</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human‐induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. Five models simulated statistically significant cooling in summer in near‐surface temperature over regions of LCC and one simulated warming. There were few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of LCC. The lack of consistency among the seven models was due to: 1) the implementation of LCC despite agreed maps of agricultural land, 2) the representation of crop phenology, 3) the parameterisation of albedo, and 4) the representation of evapotranspiration for different land cover types. This study highlights a dilemma: LCC is regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>Pays-Bas</li><li>Suisse</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Brandebourg</li><li>Hambourg</li><li>Hollande-Septentrionale</li><li>Midi-Pyrénées</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li></region><settlement><li>Amsterdam</li><li>Hambourg</li><li>Potsdam</li><li>Toulouse</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Pitman, A J" sort="Pitman, A J" uniqKey="Pitman A" first="A. J." last="Pitman">A. J. Pitman</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cruz, F T" sort="Cruz, F T" uniqKey="Cruz F" first="F. T." last="Cruz">F. T. Cruz</name><name sortKey="Pitman, A J" sort="Pitman, A J" uniqKey="Pitman A" first="A. J." last="Pitman">A. J. Pitman</name><name sortKey="Pitman, A J" sort="Pitman, A J" uniqKey="Pitman A" first="A. J." last="Pitman">A. J. Pitman</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="De Noblet Ucoudre, N" sort="De Noblet Ucoudre, N" uniqKey="De Noblet Ucoudre N" first="N." last="De Noblet-Ducoudré">N. De Noblet-Ducoudré</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Davin, E L" sort="Davin, E L" uniqKey="Davin E" first="E. L." last="Davin">E. L. Davin</name><name sortKey="Delire, C" sort="Delire, C" uniqKey="Delire C" first="C." last="Delire">C. Delire</name><name sortKey="Voldoire, A" sort="Voldoire, A" uniqKey="Voldoire A" first="A." last="Voldoire">A. Voldoire</name></country><country name="Suisse"><noRegion><name sortKey="Davin, E L" sort="Davin, E L" uniqKey="Davin E" first="E. L." last="Davin">E. L. Davin</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Seneviratne, S I" sort="Seneviratne, S I" uniqKey="Seneviratne S" first="S. I." last="Seneviratne">S. I. Seneviratne</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bonan, G B" sort="Bonan, G B" uniqKey="Bonan G" first="G. B." last="Bonan">G. B. Bonan</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Lawrence, P J" sort="Lawrence, P J" uniqKey="Lawrence P" first="P. J." last="Lawrence">P. J. Lawrence</name></country><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Hambourg"><name sortKey="Brovkin, V" sort="Brovkin, V" uniqKey="Brovkin V" first="V." last="Brovkin">V. Brovkin</name></region><name sortKey="Claussen, M" sort="Claussen, M" uniqKey="Claussen M" first="M." last="Claussen">M. Claussen</name><name sortKey="Gayler, V" sort="Gayler, V" uniqKey="Gayler V" first="V." last="Gayler">V. Gayler</name><name sortKey="Muller, C" sort="Muller, C" uniqKey="Muller C" first="C." last="Müller">C. Müller</name><name sortKey="Reick, C H" sort="Reick, C H" uniqKey="Reick C" first="C. H." last="Reick">C. H. Reick</name></country><country name="Pays-Bas"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ganzeveld, L" sort="Ganzeveld, L" uniqKey="Ganzeveld L" first="L." last="Ganzeveld">L. Ganzeveld</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Muller, C" sort="Muller, C" uniqKey="Muller C" first="C." last="Müller">C. Müller</name><name sortKey="Strengers, B J" sort="Strengers, B J" uniqKey="Strengers B" first="B. J." last="Strengers">B. J. Strengers</name><name sortKey="Van Den Hurk, B J J M" sort="Van Den Hurk, B J J M" uniqKey="Van Den Hurk B" first="B. J. J. M." last="Van Den Hurk">B. J. J. M. Van Den Hurk</name><name sortKey="Van Der Molen, M K" sort="Van Der Molen, M K" uniqKey="Van Der Molen M" first="M. K." last="Van Der Molen">M. K. Van Der Molen</name><name sortKey="Van Der Molen, M K" sort="Van Der Molen, M K" uniqKey="Van Der Molen M" first="M. K." last="Van Der Molen">M. K. Van Der Molen</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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